Forecasting Instant Game Sales

In Washington State, the lottery shares its sales forecasts with state economists, who are accustomed to forecasting all sorts of revenue of the basis of economic and population variables. Taking their lead, I found that I could account for a long, quarter-by-quarter history of instant game consumption on the basis of population, cost of living, unemployment, and so on- without taking into account anything that the lottery was doing. With forecasts of these driving variables, it is possible to make quarter-by-quarter forecasts of instant game consumption that are as accurate as other revenue forecasts. I apologize for the tight academic style of this article; I was still transitioning from hard science! NASPL Insights October 2011

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