Outlook for the Big Games in 2018

In December, as I have done for several years now, I review what happened in Powerball and Mega Millions in the past year, and use math models to make some predictions about future behavior. The games became more similar in October 2017, when Mega Millions raised its price and changed its matrix. My outlook for 2018 is based on players responding much as they did when Powerball made similar changes in 2012. A key point from simulations is how broad is the range of “likely” outcomes- give or take half a billion in profit is about right!NASPL Insights December 2017

 

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