What Veronique Taught Me About Advertising

I irritated Veronique by suggesting that she had effectively projected a message as a model 30 years ago; she corrected me saying that the message was mine, projected onto her. Her talent was to be an effective screen or mirror. She went on to explain her view that affirmation is something everyone seeks, and that affirming the optimism of lottery players may be the best way for us to use advertising. We remember some examples, in NASPL Insights October 2015.

Changing Brands: A Conversation with Veronique

Veronique, who as a model helped build a brand and a successful company in the eighties, finds the brand now gone, while the company thrives. Her  perspective, based on 30 years’ experience, is that the brand and the company are separable: the customers create the brand among themselves, and as the customers change, so does the brand. We speculate about how the 30-year-old lottery brand should be changing, in NASPL Insights August 2015.

The Dashboard According to Jade

In my continuing discussion with Veronique, Jade, and their colleagues at the ad agency, Jade emerged as the champion of the view that the end-effect of actual sales is likely the most sensitive measure for demonstrating the combined effects of all kinds of lottery advertising and promotions. Advertising efforts may aim to influence sentiment, and they may be effective, but the player is more likely to express this by spending an extra dollar, rather than by changing the way she responds to a survey question. Further, although our efforts may be focused on a particular game at a particular time, we hope the effect of these efforts is more diffuse and longer-lasting. This suggests a measurement strategy aimed at detecting improvements across the portfolio, which I am glad to implement as the Dashboard According to Jade.

Common-Sense Construction

Math modeling can seem arcane, but I believe it is most effective when it incorporates intuitive or common-sense features. In describing the way people play the big jackpot games, for instance, we intuitively recognize that there are some people who play nearly all the time, and others who rush in when the jackpot gets to a certain size. I reassured Veronique’s agency that a well-crafted model can incorporate these features, in NASPL Insights August 2014.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No Really- I’m On Your Side!

The methods of hypothesis testing I learned as a scientist are applicable to many situations, including testing the effectiveness of advertising. The “null hypothesis” – the assertion that nothing has changed – is central to the method. This has the effect of putting me (the testing expert) in a position that feels adversarial, to those who are trying to show an effect of their work. In NASPL Insights June 2014 I recount how my first encounter with a client exposed both my methods, and their feelings.